Sunday, January 15, 2012

Does Japanese economy continue fallen?

Cong Jiajia (arrang the most popular canon ef 15mm e)



[Be still written down? After network science and technology and horse of sift of its stock confused, people nature can think of: "Do not invest estate why on earth? This is my this all one's life in still be in exclusively the thing that appreciates continuously, and but the house builds little! " Japanese is in 80 time when also be to think so, but we forgot the bubble that lies between era to appear however]



canon ef 15mmWhen us most person (now the person of 30 years old of above) be in high school, university even when t most popular selling scooby costume he graduate school is read, japanese circumstance makes a person colourful admire. Mention Japan, it is a geographical concept not merely for more accurate ground -- Japan, however the economic nickname of this country " Japanese company " . A lot of books had expounded a such theory: Japan does not expend one gun to be played can conquer United States, basically surmount us in manufacturing industry and engineering industry big country of this one west. The pupil of the business school must study the experience case that Japan becomes famous overnight.



Struggle in deflationary medium Japanese economy



Japan rises abruptly from inside the remains most popular selling brooch pins of the Second World War, to 20 centuries 80 time had made the world system of the 2nd old economy. Before long, everybody thinks Japan surmounts the United States is time problem nevertheless, and still advance all the time along the road of ceaseless development, mastering national debt of many United States. After the west has shined, geomantic turn to east by turns it seems that. But affairs of human life is choppy.



Began 1989, japan experienced the past gradually tens of year the consequence that the consumption that raise debt and overheat estate market cause. Helter-skelter condition from 1990~1992 year Japanese estate bubble begins to spread, the balance sheet that causes Japanese bank 1000 sore 100 aperture. Japanese government still tries to color at first peace and tranquility, lower interest rate, tell a countryman " everything is good " . But fact very flooey. House property price drops continuously, activity of the favorable still rate that slides subsequently and credit, business and consumption. Japanese sink is deflationary in. Government leasehold or the plan that help the best selling t mobile prepaid cards city of no help. Want to stretch an eye to look only, can discover Japan had entered the dead space of population trend very easily.



This small island country in 20 centuries 40 time end experienced population to be born climax, 60 time time is provoking, inference is knowable be born climax after about 46 years, controlled 1992 namely, economy can begin downhill. Although dimensions of Japanese mouth spring back is lesser, also cannot jump out rule of this one development. Japan develops finally for debt bubble of the foundation with estate become credit crisis, cause economic depression of Japan of 90 time initial stage.



Economic depression after 20 years today, japan still suffers deflationary pain most popular selling memory card digital cameras . Full generation youth, shortage of opportunity of the drops namely price that they face as a child, job, government is fond of the fund that uses a youth and educational funds to pay the welfare of old people, all 200% what these brought about governmental debt to already was as high as gross domestic product now. Japanese JMR life is integrated institute chairman Songtianjiuyi calls generation of many years old 20 " hate consumptive a group of things with common features group " . The on one for generations of this one for generations and playing and singing of night of the spend money like water in OK is being pulled with card in the nightclub, night formed sharp contrast. "Hate consumptive a group of things with common features group " generation looks at the price to drop ceaselessly as a child and be brought up. In their eye, consumption is like is " do not have brains " the business that just can do. Their cool detachment looks at people to cost apartment of average of 500 thousand dollar, one capital is folded to sell after 10 years. Japan's current average room price already fall after a rise comes the level when 1983. Working station returns generation be gettinged on to waiting for emeritus person to hold, working chance is so little that working chance have pity on. The young graduate of complacent people can find income only the scanty, job that does not have welfare, perhaps be forced expatriate. The asset value that drops continuously, backwater not before the salary that drops even, fast aged population, what formed Japan jointly is deflationary, sell corrode to wear slowly Japanese standard of living.



watch casesTill 2008 ~ 2009, japan is contemporary and exclusive from beginning to end a deflationary case. Can say, although Japanese government can change economic trend, can score a success inside short time even, they also cannot go against population trend trend finally and move. After the wholesale group in Japanese mouth reachs defray peak value, be being pushed by the value of estate of mad lieutenant general of debt accelerate the ripening to acme. Accordingly, calculate whole world to be mixed in 90 time before 21 centuries 10 years part-time inside get along in prosperous ground, japan still is in deflationary dispirited in ceaselessly again fallen, fallen!



Japanese future is returned will extremely frail



Japanese is very few loudly appeal to the public what catchword, but they become very economical really. Japanese lifestyle had produced apparent change, but Japanese economy still is overflowing long way to go up to fumble hard however. House of governmental debt scale does not fall high, deposit interest rate drops not to go up only, and fast aged Japanese mouth brings about defray of governmental material benefits day-to-day increase. " new York Times " the near future published an article, the boarding house that a 500 thousand dollar bought before saying someone is in 17 years -- estate bubble is already undone at that time, atrophic, far still the trough that did not approach estate market! After paying instalment 17 years, he sold this to cover boarding house, but still owed 110 thousand dollar. This person should is faced with probably now go bankrupt.



Japan present gross domestic product summary prep above 1990, that but 22 years ago! Japan s the best selling memory card digital cameras ince bubble economy broke down 1990, threw continuously be equivalent to gross domestic product one times much exciting power; The situation that conversion reachs the United States, be equivalent to 15 trillion dollar about. Japanese stock market still dropped 80% , real estate the most popular memory laptop toshiba drops 60% , after 20 years today, japanese economy still wanders between desultory slow growth and intermittent decline. The behavior that help city alleviated labor pains, make however rise steeply of Japanese government debt, become be in debt at present highest developed country government. In addition, japan is aged the country with the rapiddest rate. Private debt cannot be total cancel totally, there still is many toxin accumulation inside Japanese society system so, need keeps clear of further.



Be still written down? After network science and technology and horse of sift of its stock confused, people nature can think of: "Do not invest estate why on earth? This is my this all one's life in still be in exclusively the thing that appreciates continuously, and but the house builds little! " Japanese is in 80 time when also be to think so, but we forgot the bubble that lies between era to appear however.



Why to doesn't Japanese government allow or compel a bank to reduce debt to can you bear level? Because they just do not think those who try anguish " poison of Buddhist monastic discipline " level, or the decision that does not wish to admit to allow to develop by economic bubble at first is unusually foolish! Without any the government can prevent big bubble atrophy, or persuade aged population does not put money for free memory laptop toshiba his senile life, but the government can decelerate this really it is one process, painful to defer, but, cost will be very bitter, the 20 many economy predicament of Japanese year ago is clear proof.



Japanese economy is current extremely frail still, governmental debt and indebted rate are annual and bullish. Experienced 20 centuries after the estate with 80 giant time and debt bubble, even if Japan undertakes gross debt recombines constrainedly, the history also won't is opposite its regard sb with special respect or new views!



(Pick from " economic severe winter is before " , cong Jiajia is arranged)

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